New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...Gulfport, MS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
35,700
3,915,629
New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...Lake Charles, LA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 161628
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015
VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN PARTS OF LA/MS...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
...SYNOPSIS...
DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC...A LONG-WAVE
TROUGH WILL GAIN AMPLITUDE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS OWING TO THE
EQUATORWARD PROGRESSION OF NUMEROUS VORTICITY MAXIMA. HOWEVER...THE
MOST RELEVANT UPPER-AIR FEATURE TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS A LEAD
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL WEAKEN WHILE TRANSLATING FROM KS/OK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z/TUE.
AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED NEAR MLU AS OF MID
MORNING WILL UNDERGO SOME DEEPENING WHILE DEVELOPING ENEWD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES PRIOR TO EVENTUALLY MOVING OFF THE NC COAST
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS CYCLONE WILL BE PRECEDED BY A
NWD-MOVING WARM FRONT WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES SEWD
THROUGH THE GULF COAST.
...LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
12Z WARM SECTOR SOUNDINGS SAMPLED A PARTIALLY MODIFIED BOUNDARY
LAYER RETURNING NWD THROUGH THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND SRN
LA...CHARACTERIZED BY LOWEST-100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF 10 TO 11
G/KG AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPE OF 200-400 J PER KG/ THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.
WHILE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
SURFACE WARM SECTOR...ITS GLANCING INFLUENCE COUPLED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NARROW CONVECTIVE BAND WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE POOR LAPSE RATES AND RESULTING WEAK
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE RISK FOR AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE. BUT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG
/I.E. 35-45 KT/ WSWLY WINDS OBSERVED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IN
CURRENT VAD DATA...A LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE
WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND OWING TO
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS.
..MEAD.. 02/16/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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