Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 180545
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2015
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW E OF THE ROCKIES WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN TODAY. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL PUSH S THROUGH S FL AND THE FL KEYS
WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES S
INTO THE FL STRAITS. OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE SERN ATLANTIC AND GULF
COASTS EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL STATES WILL
RENDER CONDITIONS HOSTILE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF
THE CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE EWD-MIGRATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN LEE OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. THIS CONVECTION MAY YIELD A LIGHTNING FLASH OR TWO
BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES AROUND SUNSET.
..SMITH/LEITMAN.. 02/18/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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