Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 201236
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015
VALID 201300Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF COLORADO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP FROM
EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TONIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD TO
THE CO FRONT RANGE BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE EWD OVER
KS/MO TONIGHT...WHILE LARGE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES OCCUR OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET...IN COMBINATION WITH CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CO.
MEANWHILE...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR TODAY INVOF THE TX/NM/OK
BORDER IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...AND HELP STRENGTHEN SLY
FLOW ACROSS TX. A MODIFYING AIR MASS IS RETURNING NWD FROM THE WRN
GULF BASIN...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
INTO THE MID 60S AS TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE SLY WITH TIME. THE N
EDGE OF THE RETURNING MOISTURE /56-60 F DEWPOINTS/ WILL SPREAD AS
FAR NE AS THE ARKLATEX BY TONIGHT.
BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR
ACROSS TX TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE MODEST MOISTURE RETURN COMPARED
TO MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES/LAPSE RATES. FARTHER NE AND MAINLY
TONIGHT...A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA AND
SATURATION...SUCH THAT WEAK CAPE ROOTED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS NEWD ALONG THE 70-80 KT
LLJ...WITH THUNDER FREEZING RAIN/SLEET LIKELY WITH THE INITIAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ABOVE A SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER FROM AR TO
THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEY REGION.
..THOMPSON/LEITMAN.. 02/20/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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