Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 031622
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015
VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN
ARIZONA INTO WESTERN COLORADO...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WEST
TEXAS...AND MAINLY TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY.
...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
WED AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE E PACIFIC...AND FLAT RIDGE
REMAINS STNRY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/WRN ATLANTIC. COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER IA WILL CONTINUE SE INTO
THE SRN PLNS...THE OZARKS...AND THE LWR TN AND OH VLYS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. A WEAKER FRONT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS NM INTO THE
SRN HI PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SRN STREAM TROUGH
NOW APPROACHING NRN BAJA CA.
...LWR CO VLY TO FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTN...
LARGELY UNIMPEDED SFC HEATING...TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...COOL AIR
ALOFT...AND POCKETS OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD-MOVING SRN STREAM
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
AZ...UT...CO...NM...AND SRN NV. A FEW OF THESE COULD YIELD SMALL
HAIL. MODEST CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR AND LIMIT BUOYANCY /SBCAPE GENERALLY
AOB 250 J PER KG/ SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY.
...W TX/SE NM LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED...
WEAK BUOYANCY WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE SRN HI PLNS LATER
TODAY/TNGT...ON WRN FRINGE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH WARM
CONVEYOR ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH. LOW- TO
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS AND
POSITIVE TILT OF TROUGH. BUT COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF EMBEDDED...
NEAR SFC-BASED CONVECTION TO YIELD OCCASIONAL THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE PERIOD.
...ARKLATEX/OZARKS TO OH VLY TNGT/EARLY WED...
850 MB WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY FOCUSED WITH TIME FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD THROUGH THE
OZARKS INTO THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS AS NRN STREAM COLD FRONT
ENCOUNTERS EXISTING ELEVATED CONFLUENCE ZONE/MOIST AXIS MARKING THE
NW FRINGE OF GULF/WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK
AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NEUTRAL AT BEST /OUTSIDE WAA/.
BUT COMBINATION OF TIGHTENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION WITH PW
APPROACHING 1.50 IN MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF SCTD
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO YIELD SPORADIC THUNDER.
..CORFIDI/THOMPSON.. 03/03/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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