Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 180048
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015
VALID 180100Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN A
LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING ACROSS THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
AREA...AND LATER INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTER-MOUNTAIN
REGION.
...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS CENTER OF UPPER LOW IS JUST SW OF THE BIG
BEND REGION OF WEST TX...LIFTING NEWD IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. SCT TSTMS ARE NOTED PRIMARILY ALONG THE NERN HEMISPHERE
OF THIS CYCLONE OVER MEXICO WHERE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
RESIDE. WITH TIME WARM ADVECTION SHOULD INDUCE ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS WEAK LLJ FOCUSES INTO SERN OK BY SUNRISE.
OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NRN
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SPARSE AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL
INHIBIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY.
..DARROW.. 03/18/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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