Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 221253
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015
VALID 221300Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN
GULF CST REGION...
...SUMMARY...
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO COULD ACCOMPANY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND ADJACENT FLORIDA TODAY.
...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
UPR-LVL FLOW WILL TREND MORE ZONAL ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION THIS
PERIOD AS WRN QUE LOW REFORMS E ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
SRN STREAM TROUGH CONTINUES SHEARING E/NE ACROSS THE GULF CST
STATES/TN VLY. OVER THE WEST...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE CYCLONIC AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING 135W CONTINUES E INTO ORE/NRN CA AND
ASSUMES A MORE NEGATIVE TILT.
AT THE SFC...EXPECT DIFFUSE W-E FRONT TO PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN GULF CST REGION AND NRN FL. WEAK WAVE NOW CENTERED NEAR LAF
SHOULD TRACK E ALONG THE BOUNDARY...REACHING THE PNS AREA THIS EVE
AND THE FL CSTL BEND EARLY MON.
...CNTRL/ERN GULF CST STATES THIS AFTN/EVE...
A BELT OF MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND 30-50 KT WSWLY 700-500 MB
FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY UPR IMPULSE SHEARING ENE ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN
GULF CST REGION TODAY...WHERE FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.50
INCHES/ WILL PERSIST. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL...HOWEVER...REMAIN
CLOSE TO ADIABATIC...AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH LOW-LVL
DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...EVEN LIMITED SFC HEATING MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS ALONG STALLED SFC FRONT.
GIVEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW
FLOW...SETUP COULD YIELD SMALL BOWS AND/OR A COUPLE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
...CNTRL HI PLNS AND MID-MO VLY THIS AFTN/EVE...
MODERATE WNWLY MID-LVL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
FROM THE CNTRL RCKYS ESE INTO THE LWR MO VLY TODAY/TNGT. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY /PW AOB .75 INCH/...TERRAIN
CIRCULATIONS AND UPLIFT ALONG A DECELERATING...NRN
STREAM...BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH LOW-LVL UPLIFT TO
YIELD WDLY SCTD LATE AFTN STORMS OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS...AND OVER
THE MID-MO VLY. WITH SPARSE MOISTURE LIMITING BUOYANCY LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINING WEAK...SUSTAINED SVR WEATHER DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY.
...PAC NW THIS AFTN/EVE...
E PAC TROUGH NOW CROSSING 135W APPEARS FAIRLY COLD IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. COMBINATION OF MID-LVL COOLING/ASCENT WITH TROUGH...AND
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF IT...SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR LATE
AFTN/EVE SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE ORE AND NRN CA CSTS...AND OVER THE
SRN CASCADES/SIKIYOUS. FARTHER E/NE...MORE WDLY SCTD DIURNAL
CONVECTION/STORMS EXPECTED OVER ERN ORE AND PARTS OF ID...WHERE SFC
HEATING AND LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE SHOULD MAXIMIZE INVOF THERMAL LOW
BENEATH RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT.
..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 03/22/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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