Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Dallas, TX...Jacksonville, FL...Columbus, OH...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...
SPC AC 020602
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS EWD INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS/NERN OK EWD ACROSS
THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MO...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS AND INTO THE SERN STATES...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OZARKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS CONUS WITH TWO
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. ONE WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL TRAIL SWD ACROSS LOWER MI...IL AND MO BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SRN PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT ARE FORECAST TO STALL AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SRN MO. TO THE W...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES DURING THE DAY WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SRN CO BY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EWD ACROSS KS/OK AND INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR BY 12Z FRI AND INTERACT
WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER SRN MO.
AHEAD OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S F WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH 60S AS FAR N AS SRN
KS INTO SRN INDIANA. THIS WILL CREATE A LARGE AREA OF INSTABILITY
BENEATH AMPLE SHEAR PROFILES WITH SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
...MID MS INTO THE OH VALLEY...
SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG THE DECELERATING COLD
FRONT/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE ACROSS IL AND MO WITH SOME MARGINAL
WIND/HAIL THREAT ONGOING. THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS TO THE E OVER ACROSS SRN
IL...INDIANA...WRN KY AND SERN MO. A REJUVENATION OF STORMS IS
LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW...AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE.
...FAR SERN KS...NERN OK...SRN MO AND NRN AR OVERNIGHT...
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE ADVECTION/PRODUCTION OF
MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS INTO ERN OK...AR...AND SRN MO DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THIS AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED. HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...AND SOME HIGH BASED AND/OR ELEVATED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
FORM OVER KS AND CONTINUE EWD N OF THE SFC LOW. AS THIS ENHANCED
AREA OF FORCING INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED FRONT OVER SERN KS/NERN
OK/SRN MO...AN ERUPTION OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND STRONG
INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES.
PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH TORNADO THREAT DEPENDENT
MAINLY ON THE STABILITY OF THE SURFACE AIR.
...FL...GA...NRN AL...
A WEAK SRN-STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT FL WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
WEAKLY AND BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE QUITE COOL...NEAR -15 C OVER NRN FL. THIS WILL FOSTER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG
SURFACE HEATING. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF WEAK SELY SURFACE WINDS AND
WLY FLOW ALOFT MAY YIELD A FEW VIGOROUS CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
...NRN TX...
A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST OVER N TX DURING THE DAY
WITH DRYLINE MIXING EWD TO JUST W OF I-35. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR
IN THIS ZONE AND CIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGLIGIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK...HEATING IS EXPECTED
TO HELP ONE OR TWO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL FOR A SLIGHT RISK AT
THIS TIME.
..JEWELL/GLEASON.. 04/02/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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