Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
San Antonio, TX...New Orleans, LA...Corpus Christi, TX...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Louisville, KY...
SPC AC 200057
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015
VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL LA TO
SWRN MS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK AREA
FROM PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND TN VALLEY SWWD TO THE WRN GULF
COAST...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE WRN GULF COAST...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC AND SERN
VA...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE WESTERN GULF
COAST INTO TONIGHT...WITH SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
...PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY SWWD TO THE
GULF COAST...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING FROM PORTIONS
OF THE MID-SOUTH TO THE UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES. THE RISK FOR SVR HAIL/WIND WILL OCCUR AS THIS ACTIVITY
TRANSITIONS INTO MORE QUASI-LINEAR MODES...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES
MAY OCCUR -- ESPECIALLY WITH SEMI-DISCRETE/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN
THE INTERIM. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SVR TSTMS WILL EXTEND FROM PARTS
OF CNTRL LA TO SWRN MS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS...PLEASE REFERENCE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 385 AND 386.
...PORTIONS OF ERN NC AND SERN VA...
A BAND OF STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING NWD
OVER THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN IN TANDEM WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
TRAVERSING THE MID-ATLANTIC. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION THE VORT-MAX-PRECEDING LLJ MAY SUPPORT A DMGG WIND GUST OR
TWO OR PERHAPS A TORNADO. NARROW CAPE PROFILES SAMPLED IN THE MHX
00Z RAOB SHOULD PROVE HOSTILE FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND MITIGATE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK.
...DEEP SOUTH TX...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT INTERCEPTS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER DEEP S TX -- REF 00Z CRP AND BRO RAOBS THAT SAMPLED MEAN MIXING
RATIOS AROUND 16-17 G/KG -- CONVECTION MAY BLOSSOM WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE LATE TONIGHT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED
DEEP SHEAR BENEATH A HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAX MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR SVR
HAIL/WIND ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.
...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST TO THE FL PENINSULA...
ASCENT IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAX MAY FOSTER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP SHEAR
COULD ENHANCE AN UPDRAFT OR TWO TO YIELD CONDITIONAL STRONG-TSTM
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION AND ONLY MODEST
DEEP ASCENT RESULT IN TOO LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN SVR TSTMS FOR THE
CONTINUATION OF SVR PROBABILITIES.
..COHEN/GRAMS.. 04/20/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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