San Antonio, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Harlingen, TX...
MARGINAL
343,312
17,894,425
Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
66,502
5,126,171
San Antonio, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Harlingen, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
56,690
5,091,493
San Antonio, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Harlingen, TX...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
57,492
5,240,248
San Antonio, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Harlingen, TX...
5 %
341,708
17,659,041
Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...
SPC AC 240059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL AREAS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
AN INCREASE IN STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL ONGOING WITHIN
THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT APPEARS AT
LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE
SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. BUT
SUSTAINED INTENSE CONVECTION...NOW NEAR IMPERIAL NEBRASKA...MAY BE
MAINTAINED AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...AIDED BY SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFICATION /UP TO 40-50 KT/. IT APPEARS THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST INTO THE 03-05Z TIME FRAME...BEFORE
INGESTION OF STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR CONTRIBUTES TO WEAKENING
TRENDS.
...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...
BASED LARGELY ON THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH/HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID
REFRESH OUTPUT...UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION...NOW STILL FORMING
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...IS A
POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS REMAINS A BIT
UNCLEAR. BUT...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ARE
CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT AND SIZABLE CAPE...AND ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF
CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG...POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING...SURFACE GUSTS.
..KERR.. 04/24/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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