Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 291251
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT WED APR 29 2015
VALID 291300Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SERN GA AND THE FL
PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
MAY ACCOMPANY WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
...SERN GA THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA...
IN WAKE OF MCS MOVING THROUGH S FL...MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD BREAKS INDICATING THAT THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL UNDERGO DESTABILIZATION...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEPER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S.
WILL REMAIN ACROSS NRN FL ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SEWD MOVING COLD
FRONT WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO INTENSIFICATION
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE MIGHT REMAIN
ISOLATED ACROSS CNTRL AND PORTIONS OF SRN FL. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE
IN THE SWLY LLJ IS FORECAST LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND THIS MIGHT PROMOTE REDEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA. STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /AOA
45 KT/ WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM COVERAGE AND
EXPECTED MODEST INSTABILITY OVER MOST OF THE PENINSULA...WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER END SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS UPDATE.
..DIAL/COOK.. 04/29/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
| 
)
