Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 010450
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN. OTHER ISOLATED WEAK STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
...SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE U.S.
FRI...AS A TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES SHIFTS GRADUALLY INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC. IN ITS WAKE...FLAT RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
S-CENTRAL U.S. WHILE FASTER/WLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY.
AT THE SURFACE...A REINFORCING COOL FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SWD
ACROSS FL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE NC
COAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW/MT WITH TIME AS A WEAK LOW
CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
WHILE SHOWERS AND A FEW/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC VICINITY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES...MAIN THUNDER RISK WILL RESIDE OVER THE
WRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HERE...DIURNAL HEATING/WEAK
DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH MODEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL
RIPPLES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED IN THE WLYS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS ARE PROGGED TO
BE LARGELY SUB-SEVERE...THOUGH A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD EVOLVE
ACROSS THE CO/SERN WY VICINITY. HERE...MODEST BUT VEERING FLOW WITH
HEIGHT IS EXPECTED WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING
MIXED-LAYER CAPE AOB 1000 J/KG -- SUGGESTIVE OF A FEW CELLS WHICH
COULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. ATTM
HOWEVER...RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO SUPPORT ADDITION OF AN AREAL
OUTLINE. OVERNIGHT...A WEAK HIGH-PLAINS SLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY
PERMIT ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS KS/MO THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 05/01/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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