May 1, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 1 04:50:37 UTC 2015 (20150501 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150501 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150501 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150501 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150501 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150501 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 010450

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
   PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN. OTHER ISOLATED WEAK STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   GENERALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE U.S.
   FRI...AS A TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES SHIFTS GRADUALLY INTO THE WRN
   ATLANTIC.  IN ITS WAKE...FLAT RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
   S-CENTRAL U.S. WHILE FASTER/WLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF
   THE COUNTRY.

   AT THE SURFACE...A REINFORCING COOL FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SWD
   ACROSS FL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE NC
   COAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS
   FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW/MT WITH TIME AS A WEAK LOW
   CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.

   WHILE SHOWERS AND A FEW/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC VICINITY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
   AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES...MAIN THUNDER RISK WILL RESIDE OVER THE
   WRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.  HERE...DIURNAL HEATING/WEAK
   DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH MODEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL
   RIPPLES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED IN THE WLYS ALOFT WILL
   SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  STORMS ARE PROGGED TO
   BE LARGELY SUB-SEVERE...THOUGH A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD EVOLVE
   ACROSS THE CO/SERN WY VICINITY.  HERE...MODEST BUT VEERING FLOW WITH
   HEIGHT IS EXPECTED WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE AOB 1000 J/KG -- SUGGESTIVE OF A FEW CELLS WHICH
   COULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS.  ATTM
   HOWEVER...RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO SUPPORT ADDITION OF AN AREAL
   OUTLINE.  OVERNIGHT...A WEAK HIGH-PLAINS SLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY
   PERMIT ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS KS/MO THROUGH THE
   END OF THE PERIOD.

   ..GOSS.. 05/01/2015

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