May 2, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 2 05:14:58 UTC 2015 (20150502 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150502 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150502 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 132,600 1,013,465 Fargo, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...Kearney, NE...North Platte, NE...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150502 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150502 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 132,525 1,016,466 Fargo, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...Kearney, NE...North Platte, NE...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150502 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 129,943 1,003,457 Fargo, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...Kearney, NE...North Platte, NE...
   SPC AC 020514

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1214 AM CDT SAT MAY 02 2015

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO
   THE NRN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER 48
   STATES TODAY WITH AN UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW
   PARALLELING THE N-CNTRL U.S./CANADA BORDER.  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   WILL FOCUS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE NRN PLAINS STATES AND IN AREAS FARTHER SSW INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS.  ADDITIONAL ISOLD TO SCTD STORMS WILL TEND TO FAVOR HIGHER
   TERRAIN AREAS OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND INTO PARTS OF THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  

   ...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS STATES...
   THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA WILL MIGRATE NEWD TOWARDS
   HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY WHILE AN ATTENDANT FRONT BISECTS PORTIONS
   OF ERN ND INTO SD BY LATE AFTERNOON.  DESPITE RELATIVELY SCANT
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG HEATING WILL PROMOTE AMPLE MIXING AND A
   WEAKENING OF THE CAP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  A CORRIDOR OF 500-1500
   J/KG SBCAPE IS FORECAST NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWD
   ALONG A LEE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.  ISOLD STORMS WILL
   PROBABLY DEVELOP FROM CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS SWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS WITHIN A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND THE PRESENCE OF
   RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AS DEPICTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS PRIOR TO DIURNAL
   BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION AND A SUBSEQUENT WANING IN STORM VIGOR
   AND COVERAGE.

   ..SMITH/MOSIER.. 05/02/2015

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