Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Kansas City, MO...Lubbock, TX...Des Moines, IA...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
SPC AC 080102
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0802 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2015
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO N-CNTRL TX...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS TO W TX...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO
UPPER MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.
...N TX...
MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH AN MCS FROM
ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO N-CNTRL TX. PREDOMINATELY LINEAR STRUCTURE
WITH SW/NE-ORIENTATION NEARLY PARALLELING MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD MITIGATE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WIND RISK DESPITE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MID/UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
WLY OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD WEAKEN WITH MINOR HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM
OF THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN CA. STILL...WITH SOME
STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL SLYS MAINTAINING AN INFLUX OF A MOIST
GULF AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW
POINTS...THE MCS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX WITH MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL.
...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
IN THE WAKE OF EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING TODAY FROM THE MCS
OVER SRN OK TO NW TX...MEAN MIXING RATIOS ARE MODEST IN 00Z AMA/DDC
RAOBS AT 7-7.5 G/KG. WITH A COOL/RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
PROFILE...BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL TONIGHT. GREATEST RELATIVE
SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE NEAR-TERM WITHIN A POST-FRONTAL
REGIME ALONG THE E-CNTRL CO/W-CNTRL KS BORDER. FARTHER S...ECMWF AND
RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE INSISTENT ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE TX
S PLAINS BY 12Z/FRI AS RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITHIN A
STRENGTHENING LLJ. WITH THE LACK OF AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MINIMAL DCVA IN MOST GUIDANCE...THIS
SCENARIO APPEARS UNLIKELY AND WILL ONLY MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.
..GRAMS.. 05/08/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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