Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Oklahoma City, OK...Colorado Springs, CO...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...
SPC AC 090100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015
VALID 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF N-CNTRL TX AND SE
OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE S-CNTRL
STATES...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK OVER
THE S-CNTRL STATES...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT
ACROSS THE RED RIVER AREA WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A
FEW TORNADOES. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE
CENTRAL INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
...RED RIVER AREA...
A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING WITHIN AN MCS FROM CNTRL OK
INTO PARTS OF N TX. WITH STORMS FORMING FARTHER E NEAR THE RED RIVER
ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW VIA A DECAYING MCS OVER NE
TX...AMALGAMATION OF UPDRAFTS INTO AN EVEN BROADER MCS APPEARS
LIKELY THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
SWRN/TAIL-END OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FROM N-CNTRL TX WWD SUPPORTING ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS AMIDST A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND 70-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR PER 00Z FWD RAOB.
WITH TIME...MCS CONSOLIDATION SHOULD YIELD PREDOMINANT LEWP/BOWING
STRUCTURES WITH DAMAGING WIND AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WWD-SURGE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM EARLY DAY STORMS/EFFECTIVE COLD
FRONT HAS MAINTAINED 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS WITHIN A RELATIVELY COOL
POST-FRONTAL REGIME. WITH 00Z AMA RAOB SAMPLING MINIMAL
BUOYANCY...ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SE CO WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING. STILL...AN
ENLARGED/ELONGATED HODOGRAPH WILL FOSTER A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH A
CONFINED LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO RISK.
OVERNIGHT...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DCVA WILL BECOME PRONOUNCED
DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL INDUCE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLYS FROM THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU TO THE PANHANDLES AND FOSTER POLEWARD ADVECTION OF
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR. DESPITE THE TIME OF DAY...CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS EARLY SAT SHOULD BE BASED IN THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER.
LARGE HAIL WILL PROBABLY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT LOCALIZED
SEVERE WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
..GRAMS.. 05/09/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
| 
)
