May 27, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 27 12:52:45 UTC 2015 (20150527 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150527 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150527 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 301,813 61,616,319 Philadelphia, PA...Dallas, TX...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...
MARGINAL 751,256 73,619,879 New York, NY...Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150527 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 28,766 243,874 Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Woodward, OK...Elk City, OK...
2 % 143,438 10,317,341 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150527 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 303,850 61,704,713 Philadelphia, PA...Dallas, TX...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...
5 % 719,787 73,312,546 New York, NY...Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150527 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 192,115 28,477,493 Dallas, TX...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Fort Worth, TX...
5 % 511,598 31,094,656 Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...New Orleans, LA...Tulsa, OK...
   SPC AC 271252

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

   VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
   INTO NEW ENGLAND...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
   EASTERN US...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID
   ATLANTIC COAST REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS PARTS
   OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND PORTIONS
   OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

   ...OHIO VALLEY...
   MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
   IA/MO.  A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
   THIS TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST MO.  EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
   SHOWS RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONVECTION...WHICH
   SHOULD ALLOW RAPID HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION.  PRESENT INDICATIONS
   ARE THAT THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING OVER
   SOUTHERN IND/WESTERN KY AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OH INTO
   WESTERN PA.  MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG AND 40-50 KNOTS OF MID
   LEVEL FLOW SUPPORT A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN
   THESE AREAS.

   ...MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND...
   A BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NY SOUTHWARD INTO
   WV.  THIS WEAK CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
   NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY.  STRONG HEATING IN THIS REGION COUPLED WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HELP YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG. 
   MOST CAM SOLUTIONS SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
   THIS CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/BOWING STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE
   OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.  ANY STORM THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE IN
   THIS REGION WOULD POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR A TORNADO AS WELL.

   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN TODAY OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
   CO/WESTERN KY AND SOUTHWEST NEB...SOUTHWARD INTO TX AND WESTERN OK. 
   SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MODERATE CAPE VALUES AND A BREAKABLE CAP WILL
   RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE. 
   THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF STORMS APPEARS TO BE FROM SOUTHWEST NEB
   INTO NORTHWEST OK.  STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS EVENING AND
   STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

   ..HART/GLEASON.. 05/27/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z