Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
276,612
11,141,722
Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Lubbock, TX...Irving, TX...Amarillo, TX...
5 %
608,648
47,563,147
Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
219,503
6,066,952
Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Lubbock, TX...Irving, TX...Amarillo, TX...
5 %
425,528
29,437,887
Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
SPC AC 280600
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF NEW
ENGLAND...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NERN
STATES...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THURSDAY. POSITIVE
TILT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NERN
STATES AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NERN U.S. SEABOARD BY THURSDAY EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SLOW-MOVING NRN STREAM TROUGH. A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA
EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES WILL EMERGE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE A LEE TROUGH WILL
RESIDE. AT LEAST A COUPLE OF MCVS HAVE EMERGED OVER KS AND SWD INTO
OK/NWRN TX...AND THESE FEATURES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
IN WAKE OF EARLY STORMS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE OVER THE
CNTRL THROUGH SRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER SWRN TX TO LOW 60S IN WRN KS BENEATH 7-7.5
C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD BOOST MLCAPE TO
2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE IN THIS CORRIDOR. AREAS OF ENHANCED LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING VORTICITY MAXIMA AND
CONVERGENCE/MIXING ALONG AND WEST OF LEE TROUGH WILL FOSTER THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS FROM WRN NEB SWD THROUGH ERN NM AND WRN TX.
SSELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH MODEST WINDS ALOFT /25-30 KT AT 500
MB/ WILL SUPPORT 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. BOTH MULTICELL AND
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. A WINDOW WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND BEFORE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE AND EVOLVE INTO
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCSS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND INTO MID-LATE EVENING.
...SRN OK THROUGH NRN TX...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY REDEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACCOMPANYING ONGOING CONVECTION FROM SRN OK THROUGH NRN
TX DURING THE DAY. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT MULTICELL AND POSSIBLE MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS.
...NEW ENGLAND AREA...
DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOW 60S DEWPOINTS/
WILL SUPPORT 800-1200 J/KG MLCAPE DURING THE DAY. BELT OF STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WITHIN BASE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
35-45 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL ACQUIRE UPDRAFT ROTATION...BUT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO
EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. EXPECTED WEAK THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL HAIL THREAT...BUT SOME HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS WHERE MID-LEVEL ROTATION CAN BOOST UPDRAFT STRENGTH.
..DIAL/COOK.. 05/28/2015
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