New York, NY...Fort Worth, TX...Boston, MA...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...
MARGINAL
634,787
48,677,685
Philadelphia, PA...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Kansas City, MO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
97,967
1,411,952
Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...San Angelo, TX...Garden City, KS...
2 %
215,021
8,641,809
Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Wichita, KS...Irving, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
356,554
36,854,570
New York, NY...Fort Worth, TX...Boston, MA...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...
5 %
635,597
49,017,664
Philadelphia, PA...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Kansas City, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Wichita, KS...Lubbock, TX...
5 %
392,580
41,754,096
New York, NY...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Boston, MA...
SPC AC 281633
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
VALID 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY/PERMIAN BASIN VICINITY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF NEB SWD TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO SERN NY/NERN PA/NRN NJ...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREA...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE NEW ENGLAND
SLIGHT RISK AREA...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING...COMPRISED OF SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS -- BOTH CONVECTIVE AND SYNOPTIC -- WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES TODAY...WITH A
SIMILARLY BROAD ZONE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WLYS AFFECTING THE
CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES/CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM...
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE E...WHILE STILL FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES SERN CANADA AND THE
ADJACENT NERN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE FEATURE.
FARTHER W...A SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD
ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES/OUTFLOWS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM KS SWD TO TX.
...WRN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
A VERY COMPLEX CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL SRN
PLAINS VICINITY TODAY...AS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF ONGOING STORMS
PERSIST ATTM...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS KS/OK/TX. A LARGE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CROSSING THE ERN OK VICINITY HAS TEMPORARILY
STABILIZED THE AIRMASS OVER OK...BUT VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
RESULT IN POCKETS OF STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR. ONE PARTICULAR AREA OF
ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN HALF OF
TX...PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM ONGOING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION.
GIVEN THE POTENTIALLY VOLATILE AIRMASS LIKELY TO EVOLVE IN AREAS
WHERE HEATING IS MAXIMIZED...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT -- FEATURING
30 TO 35 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS SPREADING ATOP GENERALLY SELY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS -- WILL SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL STORMS.
ALONG WITH RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX. A
FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY IN
VORTICITY-RICH AREAS NEAR AND N OF NWRN/WRN TX CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MOST BACKED.
WITH TIME...STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE
MCS...WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO INCREASE ALONG WITH ONGOING
SEVERE THREAT.
SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED NWD INTO NRN
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...WHERE A SLIGHTLY LESS
UNSTABLE/SLIGHTLY LESS-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED.
STILL...STORMS DEVELOPING INVOF THE ADVANCING TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS LOCALLY.
...NEW ENGLAND INTO SERN NY/NWRN PA/NRN NJ...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING FROM WRN AND CENTRAL ME SWWD
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RISK AREA AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. DESTABILIZATION OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
AREA HAS PUSHED MIXED-LAYER CAPE INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE AT
MIDDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO
SUPPORT THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE INCREASE.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA /40 TO 50 KT
WSWLYS INDICATED AT MID LEVELS PER VWP AND RAOB DATA/ ON THE SRN
SIDE OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE SRN QUEBEC
VICINITY. THIS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION -- MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LINEAR/BOWING SEGMENTS BUT ALSO WITH POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION
IN STRONGER CELLS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER
STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS AS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE FRONT -- LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
..GOSS.. 05/28/2015
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