Jun 5, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 5 12:37:32 UTC 2015 (20150605 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150605 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150605 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 107,094 4,160,993 Denver, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...Thornton, CO...
MARGINAL 333,772 5,485,717 Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...Springfield, MO...Pueblo, CO...Billings, MT...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150605 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 20,986 2,329,196 Denver, CO...Aurora, CO...Thornton, CO...Westminster, CO...Highlands Ranch, CO...
2 % 86,537 1,862,660 Colorado Springs, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...Pueblo, CO...Arvada, CO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150605 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 107,562 4,030,713 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
5 % 313,160 5,429,027 Wichita, KS...Springfield, MO...Billings, MT...Rapid City, SD...St. George, UT...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150605 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 21,375 2,347,149 Denver, CO...Aurora, CO...Fort Collins, CO...Thornton, CO...Westminster, CO...
15 % 107,333 3,988,112 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
5 % 324,401 5,574,224 Wichita, KS...Springfield, MO...Billings, MT...Boulder, CO...Rapid City, SD...
   SPC AC 051237

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0737 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

   VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
   PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MO/NRN AR ACROSS KS TO
   THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS ERN/NRN AZ INTO
   SRN UT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THE RISK FOR A
   COUPLE OF TORNADOES...ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW DAMAGING
   GUSTS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.

   ...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
   LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TODAY...WITH A
   SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN...A RIDGE OVER THE
   SRN PLAINS...AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. 
   WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW...AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX WILL
   ROTATE NNEWD FROM ERN AZ TO WRN/NRN CO AND SRN WY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
   AT THE SURFACE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS
   BEEN MODIFIED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EFFECTIVE
   BOUNDARY NOW LOCATED FROM SE KS TO E CENTRAL CO.  BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL PERSIST TODAY ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/
   FRONT...BENEATH THE REMAINS OF AN EML PLUME EMANATING FROM NM. 
   THESE FACTORS...IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL SUPPORT
   ANOTHER DAY OF MODERATE-STRONG BUOYANCY /MLCAPE AOA 2000 J PER KG/
   FROM KS INTO ERN CO.

   THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FRONT
   RANGE TODAY...SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW
   REGIME TO THE N OF A WEAK LEE CYCLONE OVER SE CO.  THE MORE
   FAVORABLE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED IN CO TO THE IMMEDIATE N
   OF THE RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT FROM THE DEN AND COS AREAS TO
   AKO...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE GREATER. 
   A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
   DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS E
   CENTRAL AND NE CO.  FARTHER N...BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
   A LITTLE WEAKER COMPARED TO NE CO...BUT STILL AT LEAST MARGINALLY
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING GUSTS.

   ...CENTRAL/SE KS TO SRN MO THIS AFTERNOON...
   OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING STORMS HAS MOVED SWD TO NEAR THE SE KS/NE OK
   BORDER...WITH A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IN SW MO MOVING ALONG
   ANOTHER DIFFUSE BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN MO.  THE SE KS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   SHOULD RETREAT NWD BY AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS INTERSECTS THE OUTFLOW.  BUOYANCY WILL BE
   RELATIVELY LARGE ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 80S
   WITH DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F...THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL
   FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/SUPERCELLS.  SINCE LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT WILL BE NEBULOUS...WILL OUTLOOK ONLY LOW HAIL/WIND
   PROBABILITIES. 

   ...ERN/NRN AZ INTO SRN UT TODAY...
   AN UNUSUALLY RICH MOISTURE PLUME IS OVERSPREADING S CENTRAL AZ THIS
   MORNING WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.25 INCHES AND SOME ONGOING
   THUNDERSTORMS.  AS THE MOISTURE SPREADS NWD ONTO THE RIM COUNTRY IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS...EXPECT CONVECTION
   TO DEVELOP NWD ACROSS N/NE AZ AND SRN UT.  THOUGH BUOYANCY WILL NOT
   BE PARTICULARLY LARGE...STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR
   SOME RISK FOR FAST-MOVING CELLS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERHAPS
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   ..THOMPSON/COOK.. 06/05/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z