Jun 19, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 19 16:30:55 UTC 2015 (20150619 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150619 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150619 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 95,311 543,647 Rapid City, SD...Aberdeen, SD...Watertown, SD...Brookings, SD...Sheridan, WY...
SLIGHT 165,580 2,188,385 Sioux Falls, SD...Billings, MT...Fargo, ND...Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...
MARGINAL 340,474 35,342,693 Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...Virginia Beach, VA...Minneapolis, MN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150619 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 57,520 383,120 Billings, MT...Rapid City, SD...Spearfish, SD...Miles City, MT...Rapid Valley, SD...
2 % 246,164 9,937,977 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Louisville, KY...Sioux Falls, SD...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150619 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 38,810 172,242 Rapid City, SD...Pierre, SD...Spearfish, SD...Rapid Valley, SD...Sturgis, SD...
30 % 75,589 457,111 Rapid City, SD...Aberdeen, SD...Watertown, SD...Brookings, SD...Mitchell, SD...
15 % 168,287 2,244,259 Sioux Falls, SD...Billings, MT...Fargo, ND...Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...
5 % 346,980 35,265,903 Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...Virginia Beach, VA...Minneapolis, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150619 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 38,785 131,381 Gillette, WY...Sheridan, WY...Spearfish, SD...Miles City, MT...Sturgis, SD...
30 % 60,988 281,305 Rapid City, SD...Sheridan, WY...Spearfish, SD...Miles City, MT...Rapid Valley, SD...
15 % 175,189 1,543,842 Billings, MT...Fargo, ND...Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Bozeman, MT...
5 % 118,965 5,064,391 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Bloomington, MN...Plymouth, MN...
   SPC AC 191630

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

   VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
   PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
   PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO
   VA/CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS INITIALLY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
   TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A
   FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS WITH INTENSE
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS TONIGHT.

   ...MT/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST...
   LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND A STRENGTHENING OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL
   WESTERLIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A SUBSTANTIAL
   TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
   WITH AID OF LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS AND A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING
   FRONT/HIGHER TERRAIN...THE MAIN SCENARIO WILL BE FOR SURFACE-BASED
   STORMS TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...INITIALLY
   ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL MT AND FAR NORTHEAST WY...WITH OTHER
   STORMS POTENTIALLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN.
   STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
   WILL SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE
   OF TORNADOES. SUBSEQUENTLY...UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH INTO A
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING/ACCELERATING MCS SEEMS HIGHLY LIKELY BY
   EVENING...PARTICULARLY WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST MT INTO
   PORTIONS OF SD WHERE A RELATIVE CONCENTRATION OF WIND
   DAMAGE/SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH OVERALL
   INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT OWING TO INCREASINGLY
   ELEVATED INFLOW...SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS FAR
   EAST AS PORTIONS OF MN/NORTHERN IA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
   FAST-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE.

   ...MID-SOUTH AND TN/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS...
   THE REMNANTS OF BILL...LOCATED OVER THE OZARKS/NEARING THE MIDDLE MS
   RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD
   PROGRESSION TODAY WITH A MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
   REMAINING ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. THIS ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WIND
   FIELD WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE THAT
   EXTENDS WSW-ENE ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
   COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF
   ANY SUCH POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
   SOUTHERN IL/INDIANA AND WESTERN KY AND POSSIBLY WESTERN TN. BOUTS OF
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL OTHERWISE BE A CONCERN PRIMARILY THIS
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO VA/CAROLINAS...
   HEATING OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A LEE
   TROUGH...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE
   FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED STORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON. MODEST /25-30 KT/ DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALIGNED WITH MLCAPE OF
   1000-2000 J/KG WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS
   CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO EARLY EVENING.

   ..GUYER/COOK.. 06/19/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z