Jun 23, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 23 16:37:20 UTC 2015 (20150623 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150623 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150623 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 75,004 44,704,158 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Newark, NJ...
SLIGHT 261,337 27,026,352 Boston, MA...Virginia Beach, VA...Omaha, NE...Pittsburgh, PA...Lexington-Fayette, KY...
MARGINAL 608,066 53,797,220 Jacksonville, FL...Columbus, OH...Nashville, TN...Kansas City, MO...New Orleans, LA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150623 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 15,830 21,898,141 New York, NY...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...Springfield, MA...
2 % 150,874 37,495,252 Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Washington, DC...Richmond, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150623 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 74,815 44,703,405 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Newark, NJ...
15 % 176,929 24,496,591 Boston, MA...Virginia Beach, VA...Pittsburgh, PA...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Norfolk, VA...
5 % 630,723 54,458,652 Jacksonville, FL...Columbus, OH...Nashville, TN...Kansas City, MO...New Orleans, LA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150623 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 276,578 64,148,006 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Washington, DC...
5 % 451,885 32,382,811 Columbus, OH...Kansas City, MO...Virginia Beach, VA...St. Louis, MO...Cincinnati, OH...
   SPC AC 231637

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1137 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

   VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF WRN MA/CT/SERN
   NY WSWWD ACROSS NJ/SERN PA/ERN WV/NRN VA/DE AND MD...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE MID OH VALLEY
   AREA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/LOWER
   MO VALLEY VICINITY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS SEWD TO
   THE MID MS VALLEY...AND THEN NEWD INTO THE NERN U.S. AS WELL AS SWD
   INTO THE SRN STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND
   POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF NEW
   ENGLAND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY. FARTHER
   WEST...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
   WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
   TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH STORMS ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
   AREA.

   ...THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC/OHIO VALLEY AREA...
   COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON...AS EARLY CONVECTION HAS ALTERED THE PRE-FRONTAL
   ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NY AND INTO VT/NY/ME.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
   ZONE OF GREATEST SEVERE RISK -- COINCIDENT WITH THE ENHANCED RISK
   AREA -- EXTENDS FROM WV/SRN PA EWD/NEWD INTO PARTS OF SRN NEW
   ENGLAND...ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF EARLIER/ONGOING STORMS WHERE A
   VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE FAIRLY
   AGGRESSIVELY.  

   EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON -- AIDED BY RELATIVELY STRONG WLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP
   LAYER.  GIVEN THE QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW
   FIELD...CLUSTERS OF FAST-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
   WINDS AND HAIL WILL LIKELY PREVAIL...THOUGH WELL-ORGANIZED/ISOLATED
   STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FLOW FIELD SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT
   ROTATION.  RISK WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W-E AS THE COLD FRONT
   ENTERING THE NORTHEAST ATTM MOVES STEADILY TOWARD THE COAST.  

   ...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
   AFTERNOON...AS A MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
   GRADUALLY IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  WHILE COVERAGE WILL
   LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT SPARSE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...MODERATE
   MID-LEVEL WLYS ATOP SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL RESULT IN SHEAR
   SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS -- AND ATTENDANT
   HAIL/WIND RISK.  POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SMALL MCS MAY OCCUR
   TONIGHT INVOF NERN WY/SERN MT/WRN SD AS A SELY LOW-LEVEL JET
   DEVELOPS -- WHERE RISK FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
   POSSIBLE.

   ...NERN KS/SERN NEB EWD INTO SWRN IA/NRN MO...
   SCATTERED ELEVATED STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SRN
   NEB/NERN KS ATTM...AND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS --
   ALONG WITH ONGOING RISK FOR HAIL.  WHILE SOME DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
   MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.

   ..GOSS/COOK.. 06/23/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z