Jun 25, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 25 05:21:53 UTC 2015 (20150625 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150625 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150625 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 335,223 49,693,240 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...Denver, CO...Washington, DC...
MARGINAL 414,930 27,989,656 Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Fort Wayne, IN...Baton Rouge, LA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150625 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 7,596 5,246,243 Washington, DC...Arlington, VA...Alexandria, VA...Silver Spring, MD...Centreville, VA...
2 % 104,319 12,628,351 Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...Richmond, VA...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150625 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 334,291 49,651,004 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...Denver, CO...Washington, DC...
5 % 418,617 27,508,653 Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Fort Wayne, IN...Baton Rouge, LA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150625 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 334,464 49,360,122 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...Denver, CO...Washington, DC...
5 % 385,362 26,043,946 Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Greensboro, NC...Fort Wayne, IN...
   SPC AC 250521

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHEAST KS THROUGH THE
   OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
   PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC AREA. A
   SEVERE THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A BAND OF ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM
   IA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MIGRATE
   THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. AT
   THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST IA WILL DRIFT
   EASTWARD. A WARM FRONT WILL LIE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
   NORTHERN IL EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN/CENTRAL OHIO WITH A COLD
   FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 

   ...OHIO VALLEY REGION...

   MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SEVERE MCS OVER EASTERN IA AT 04Z/25 IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND
   INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12Z THIS MORNING. CLOUD
   DEBRIS...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW FROM THIS DECAYING SYSTEM
   WILL COMPLICATE WHERE AND WHEN THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BY
   LIMITING HEATING AND DELAYING AIRMASS RECOVERY FROM PARTS OF
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY AND POINTS
   DOWNSTREAM. GIVEN THE EXPECTED NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON THE OVERALL
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND PER COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL
   WFO/S...THE ENHANCED RISK FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS BEEN
   DROPPED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP ALONG
   THE WARM FRONT OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THESE STORMS COULD
   POSE A STRONG WIND AND/OR HAIL THREAT DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF
   DESTABILIZATION/AIRMASS RECOVERY THAT CAN OCCUR. 

   FURTHER EAST...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF A CONCERN AND
   A RE-INVIGORATION OF THE DECAYING MCS OR NEW THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KY INTO PARTS
   OF SOUTHERN WV AND NORTHWESTERN VA. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC AND
   KINEMATIC FIELDS WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
   GIVEN THE MODIFYING CONTINENTAL AIRMASS...SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEEP LAYER
   FLOW AND LACK OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. 

   ...NORTHEAST KS INTO CENTRAL IL...

   A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL EXIST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
   STRONGER BAND OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND AHEAD OF
   THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH
   MUCH OF THE DAY BUT WILL INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND AFTER AS THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE DAKOTAS DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS. THIS SHOULD AID IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AROUND 00Z OR SOON AFTER. STEEP LAPSE
   RATES WILL AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
   WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY LIMIT SUPERCELL LONGEVITY/ORGANIZATION
   DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MORE
   PREDOMINANT. 

   ...MID-ATLANTIC...

   A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND A VERY MOIST
   AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS
   FROM NORTHERN VA INTO THE NC PIEDMONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
   LIMITED...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
   AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 35-40 KT
   WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE MAIN
   THREATS. A TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY
   ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN VA TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE WHERE HODOGRAPHS
   WILL BE MAXIMIZED. 

   ...CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
   OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME
   WILL BE IN PLACE AND A BAND OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
   DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
   STORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE MOVING OUT
   INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR GREATER THAN 35 KT WILL
   FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN
   THREATS.

   ..LEITMAN/COHEN.. 06/25/2015

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