Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 111956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
VALID 112000Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VA AND
EASTERN NC...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL IL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO CNTRL
NEB...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND THE CAROLINAS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN AZ AND WRN
NM...
...SUMMARY...
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS BOTH
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
...ND/SD/NEB...
PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK IS TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK
SLIGHTLY SWD ACROSS CNTRL NEB. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN
INCREASING CU FIELD NEAR THE CO/NEB BORDER...ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS NWD INTO NRN NEB AND ERN SD. OBSERVED SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...AND WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO MIX/DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON...MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000
J/KG SHOULD BE MAINTAINED. 20-30 KT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND SVR WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SVR
STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER N INTO PARTS OF ND/SD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A WEAK SFC TROUGH. FOR
ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS...PLEASE REFERENCE MCD 1365.
...ERN AZ AND WRN NM...
TSTM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS ERN AZ/WRN NM. PW VALUES ABOVE 1
INCH /AT LOWER ELEVATIONS/ COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS...WITH PRIMARY
THREATS OF HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. AS SUCH...MARGINAL/5 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED IN THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE. FOR
ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS...PLEASE REFERENCE MCD 1364.
...ERN NC...
ONGOING TSTMS WITHIN WW 401 CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR PRIMARILY
DMGG WINDS ACROSS ERN NC INTO FAR SERN VA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE AND WEAKENING.
...CNTRL IL...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS HAS EVOLVED ACROSS CNTRL IL...AND
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AS IT MOVES E-SEWD ALONG A SHARP
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE
ACROSS WRN IL INTO SERN IA THIS EVENING...WHERE MODEST AIR MASS
RECOVERY IS OCCURRING.
..ROGERS.. 07/11/2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015/
...EASTERN NC...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A PERSISTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS VA. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
EASTERN NC TODAY...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST BY A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE OVER THIS
REGION...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR
IS PRESENT FOR SOME RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
...CENTRAL IL...
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER IA.
THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO IL THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE
SLOWLY ERODING ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD MODERATE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...ND/SD/NEB...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A NARROW AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL ND INTO CENTRAL NEB. AMPLE MOISTURE AND STRONG
INSTABILITY EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE INTENSE
UPDRAFTS...WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
OR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
| 
)
