Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...Cleveland, OH...Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Memphis, TN...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Kansas City, MO...Cleveland, OH...
SPC AC 141619
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS
INTO THE CAROLINAS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH/TN
VALLEYS...CAROLINAS...AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN KS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MUCH OF THE EASTERN US...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS WESTERN KANSAS AND VICINITY.
...OH VALLEY...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MI.
THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
OH VALLEY TODAY. SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST OH IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IN
REGION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRONG HEATING TO THE EAST
WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG...WHERE STRONG
WIND ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL/BOWING STORM STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREATS...BUT SOME CONCERN EXISTS FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL.
...TN/GA/SC/NC...
A REMNANT MCS IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NC...WITH A FEW INTENSE
CORES ALONG ITS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN FLANK. CONTINUED DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN REJUVENATION OF STORMS
FROM MIDDLE/EASTERN TN INTO NORTH GA AND SC BY MID AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A RISK OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. DESTABILIZATION ON THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE REMNANT MCS /OVER NC/ MAY ALSO FLARE UP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL FOR A FEW HOURS.
...MO/AR/TN...
A LONG-LIVED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MO APPEARS
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS
OF NORTHEAST AR AND WESTERN KY/TN. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
...WESTERN KS VICINITY...
A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN CO...SPREADING INTO WESTERN
KS. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION BY
EARLY EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS AFTER
DARK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A REGION OF MORE FOCUSED SEVERE CONCERN
OVER WESTERN KS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. THIS
REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO ENH RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..HART/MOSIER.. 07/14/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
| 
)
