Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 141955
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO
TN VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND WWD INTO THE MID SOUTH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN SEABOARD INTO NRN
HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
TO THE MID SOUTH EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AS WELL AS WESTERN KANSAS AND VICINITY.
...OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
AN MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES IS CURRENTLY EVOLVING
OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A POTENT VORTICITY
MAXIMUM TRANSLATING SEWD FROM LOWER MI. EXPECT THIS MCS TO CONTINUE
SEWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THE UPSTREAM FLANK OF THE
SYSTEM FROM SRN IND INTO KY. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY HAZARD...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES. LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A
PREDOMINANT LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH THE GREATEST RISK ON THE
WRN EXTENT OF THE MCS WHERE MORE DISCRETE STORMS /SUPERCELLS/ WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.
...MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY INTO SRN APPALACHIANS...
A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS HAS EVOLVED THIS AFTERNOON OVER S-CNTRL KY
INTO NRN MIDDLE AND NERN TN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A N-S-ORIENTED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND W-E-ORIENTED PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE. THIS
CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDS WWD INTO NERN AR WHERE IT MEETS A SMALL BUT
FAST-MOVING MCS. WITH TIME...EXPECT FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE WITH THE TN STORMS AND NERN AR
STORMS EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND
SPREADING SEWD/SWD INTO NRN PARTS OF MS/AL/GA THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL
SUPERCELLS OVER TN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
...WRN NY INTO CNTRL PA...
TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING
THE GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE. MODEST AMOUNTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY MAY YIELD A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
...CAROLINAS...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
ALONG AND E OF A LEE TROUGH PRESENT OVER THE PIEDMONT. SEVERE STORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...THEREFORE THE ENHANCED RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
AREA.
..MEAD.. 07/14/2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
...OH VALLEY...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MI.
THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
OH VALLEY TODAY. SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST OH IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IN
REGION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRONG HEATING TO THE EAST
WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG...WHERE STRONG
WIND ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL/BOWING STORM STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREATS...BUT SOME CONCERN EXISTS FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL.
...TN/GA/SC/NC...
A REMNANT MCS IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NC...WITH A FEW INTENSE
CORES ALONG ITS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN FLANK. CONTINUED DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN REJUVENATION OF STORMS
FROM MIDDLE/EASTERN TN INTO NORTH GA AND SC BY MID AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A RISK OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. DESTABILIZATION ON THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE REMNANT MCS /OVER NC/ MAY ALSO FLARE UP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL FOR A FEW HOURS.
...MO/AR/TN...
A LONG-LIVED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MO APPEARS
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS
OF NORTHEAST AR AND WESTERN KY/TN. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
...WESTERN KS VICINITY...
A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN CO...SPREADING INTO WESTERN
KS. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION BY
EARLY EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS AFTER
DARK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A REGION OF MORE FOCUSED SEVERE CONCERN
OVER WESTERN KS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. THIS
REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO ENH RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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