Jul 16, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 16 16:24:12 UTC 2015 (20150716 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150716 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150716 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 37,929 2,281,890 Peoria, IL...Davenport, IA...Bloomington, IL...Iowa City, IA...Normal, IL...
MARGINAL 390,924 32,675,199 Chicago, IL...Jacksonville, FL...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150716 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 37,783 2,275,186 Peoria, IL...Davenport, IA...Bloomington, IL...Normal, IL...Moline, IL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150716 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 37,708 2,276,266 Peoria, IL...Davenport, IA...Bloomington, IL...Normal, IL...Moline, IL...
5 % 392,164 32,778,943 Chicago, IL...Jacksonville, FL...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150716 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 359,198 23,785,759 Chicago, IL...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...
   SPC AC 161624

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

   VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MO/IA/IL...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF  THE MIDWEST AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
   STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MT/WY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE OTHER STRONG TO
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS INCLUDING
   THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...AND SOUTHEAST STATES.

   ...IA/IL/MO...
   THE REMNANTS OF A NOCTURNAL MCS IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IA
   INTO NORTHERN IL.  CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK
   OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE CAPE FROM
   NORTHEAST MO/SOUTHEAST IA ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL LATER TODAY. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS AXIS SHOW CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL
   VEERING OF WIND PROFILES ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR
   ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS.  DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
   THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR A FEW HAIL REPORTS CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT.

   ...EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN...
   WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. 
   LARGE SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM IS RESULTING IN
   SCATTERED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
   AND WESTERN MN.  MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT
   VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES.  THE MAIN FORECAST
   CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED DESTABILIZATION.  WILL
   MAINTAIN ONLY MRGL RISK AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY UPGRADE TO SLGT AT
   20Z IF TRENDS SUGGEST GREATER INSTABILITY THAN CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.

   ...GA/AL/FL...
   ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS
   OF SOUTH GA/SOUTHEAST AL AND NORTH FL.  DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S AND
   STRONG HEATING WILL YIELD MUCAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE
   STRONGER STORMS.

   ..HART/DIAL.. 07/16/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z