Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Sioux Falls, SD...Fargo, ND...Sioux City, IA...Grand Island, NE...Minot, ND...
SPC AC 240055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE PLAINS AND SERN
U.S....
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
...SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM SRN MB...SWWD INTO SCNTRL ND. THIS ACTIVITY
IS PRIMARILY MULTI-CELLULAR IN NATURE WITH MORE LINEAR
CHARACTERISTICS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER...A FEW
SUPERCELLS ARE NOTED NEAR BIS AND THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL PER MRMS ALGORITHM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS ND ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ THIS
EVENING AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
BY MORNING AS SHORT WAVE MIGRATES INTO THIS REGION.
FARTHER SOUTH...00Z SOUNDING FROM LBF EXHIBITS SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY
WITH SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXISTS
ACROSS THIS REGION FOR MAINTENANCE OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SWRN NEB. HOWEVER...WEAKER LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT AND DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED WITH LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..DARROW.. 07/24/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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