Virginia Beach, VA...Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
74,264
2,232,007
Omaha, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Fargo, ND...Sioux City, IA...Moorhead, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Virginia Beach, VA...Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
63,499
1,453,262
Sioux Falls, SD...Fargo, ND...Sioux City, IA...Moorhead, MN...Norfolk, NE...
5 %
194,001
11,334,744
Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Little Rock, AR...
SPC AC 061625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT THU AUG 06 2015
VALID 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
...SOUTHEAST STATES...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
KY/TN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF TN/MS/AL IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...WHICH ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND LESSENED DAYTIME HEATING OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MS/AL/GA.
HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE CLOUD COVER IS A ZONE OF STRONG HEATING AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM CENTRAL MS...ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL
AND GA...INTO SC/NC. THIS CORRIDOR APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY.
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S...COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S WILL YIELD MODERATE CAPE VALUES. SLIGHTLY INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN THE STRONGER CELLS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
...NORTHERN PLAINS...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK IN THIS REGION.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT OVER THE DAKOTAS TRACKING
EASTWARD...AND WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MN/IA/NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.
..HART/PICCA.. 08/06/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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