SPC AC 261931

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

   VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE N CNTRL HIGH PLNS SE
   INTO THE LWR MO VLY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE NC/SC COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL
   CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE LATE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS MAY OCCUR FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO
   CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW LATE-NIGHT STORMS WITH HAIL MAY OCCUR
   FROM PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.

   NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

   ..JEWELL.. 08/26/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   ERN NORTH AMERICAN UPR LOW/TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT
   ADVANCES SLOWLY E ACROSS QUE AND THE NERN STATES...WHILE BROAD RIDGE
   REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SRN RCKYS/SRN HIGH PLNS. WITHIN THE
   RIDGE...FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE COMPLEX NOW OVER ERN NV SHOULD
   MOVE NE TO NEAR SLC THIS EVE...BEFORE TURNING E ACROSS WY EARLY THU.
   SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN TROUGH...NOW EXTENDING FROM
   WRN ME ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE CSTL CAROLINAS TO NRN FL...WILL
   ADVANCE SLOWLY E/SE THROUGH THE DAY. THE WRN PART OF THE SAME
   BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SRN PLNS...WHILE A
   NEW BOUNDARY/WEAK WARM FRONT BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER TODAY/TNGT
   FROM CNTRL KS NNW INTO LEE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLNS.  

   ...NRN/ERN WY ESE INTO SD AND THE LWR MO VLY TODAY/TNGT...
   LOW-LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL PERSIST/STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
   PERIOD ALONG LEE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING WARM FRONT FROM THE N CNTRL
   HIGH PLNS SSE INTO THE LWR MO VLY. ASCENT WILL LIKELY WILL BE
   AUGMENTED TNGT/EARLY THU AS GRT BASIN SHORTWAVE COMPLEX APPROACHES
   THE REGION. OVERALL SETUP MAY RESULT IN SEVERAL
   SPATIALLY-OVERLAPPING EPISODES OF STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY SVR
   STORMS.

   APPROACH OF LEAD MEMBER OF GRT BASIN UPR IMPULSE...AND SFC
   HEATING...AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS MAY SUPPORT LATE AFTN/EVE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN/ERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS REGION. IF STORMS
   FORM...COMBINATION OF STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...INCREASING
   PW /TO AOA 1.00 INCH/...AND 15-20 KT WLY MID-LVL FLOW ON N SIDE OF
   UPR RIDGE MAY SUPPORT SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF SVR
   HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND.  

   LATER TNGT AND EARLY THU...NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SSW LLJ AND
   CONTINUED ENE ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE COMPLEX MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
   STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN SD AND...MORE LIKELY EARLY THU...OVER ERN
   NEB/WRN IA. THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY MAY YIELD SPORADIC LARGE
   HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING EARLY STAGES OF STORM GROWTH...GIVEN
   EXPECTED DEEP EML...INCREASING MOISTURE /PW TO 1.50 INCHES/...AND
   SIZABLE DEEP SHEAR /WITH A LARGE DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT/ INVOF
   DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. 

   ...CSTL CAROLINAS THIS AFTN... 
   SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO DIURNALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
   ALONG VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT NOW OVER ERN PORTIONS OF
   THE NC/SC CSTL PLN. HI PW /AOA 1.75 INCHES/ AND MODEST /25 KT/
   UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY CLOUD-LAYER FLOW SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SLOWLY-MOVING...BACK-BUILDING LINE SEGMENTS/SMALL STORM CLUSTERS
   WITH ISOLD LOCALLY DMGG GUSTS.

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