Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 011625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT FORECAST OVER THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED
STATES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW AND NRN ROCKIES WHERE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS NEB WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FARTHER UPSTREAM MOVING TOWARDS SRN CA. TWO MID-LEVEL LOWS
ARE ALSO PRESENT -- ONE CENTERED OVER IND AND ANOTHER LARGER LOW
OVER THE TX GULF COAST -- WITHIN THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO S TX.
SURFACE PATTERN IS EQUALLY RELAXED...WITH A COMPARATIVELY WEAK
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CONUS. WEAK LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEB WILL CONTINUE
TO LOSE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY
AND LEE TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
...CNTRL AZ...
GENERALLY WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
AREA FROM SE AZ NNEWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS. GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...STORM ORGANIZATION IS UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MOVE INTO CNTRL AZ DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS
SCENARIO HAS EVOLVED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOME MEASURED SEVERE
GUSTS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE PHX AREA. LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR
MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM TUS AND PHX ARE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO A BIT WEAKER. HIGHS ACROSS THE
REGION MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS WELL. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS
ON TOP OF AN ALREADY LOW RISK SHOULD TEMPER THE NEED FOR SEVERE
PROBS OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A GUSTY DOWNBURST OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
..MOSIER.. 09/01/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
| 
)
