Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
31,908
328,499
Grand Forks, ND...West Fargo, ND...West Fargo, MN...Jamestown, ND...Devils Lake, ND...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
31,847
330,455
Grand Forks, ND...West Fargo, ND...West Fargo, MN...Jamestown, ND...Devils Lake, ND...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 041621
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015
VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ND/MN...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND PARTS OF MINNESOTA TODAY.
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION LIMITING DESTABILIZATION. RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND
SEVERAL CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSIENT STRONG
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OR A BRIEF
TORNADO. HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS
MARGINAL.
..HART/LEITMAN.. 09/04/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
| 
)
