Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 141939
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN U.S. --
PARTICULARLY PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ARIZONA AND UTAH VICINITY...AS
WELL AS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER RISK
REMAINS MINIMAL.
...DISCUSSION...
ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT EWD EXTENSION OF THE THUNDER LINE IN THE OZARKS
VICINITY...NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST/REASONING.
..GOSS.. 09/14/2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015/
...SYNOPSIS...
A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA THIS
PERIOD...DUE IN LARGE PART TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE FROM OFF THE WA/ORE COASTS TO THE NRN ROCKIES AND SIERRA
NEVADA BY 15/12Z. A SERIES OF WEAKER MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL
PRECEDE THIS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...THE
MOST SUBSTANTIAL OF WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE CNTRL CA COAST INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. ELSEWHERE...A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL SHIFT FROM
THE NERN U.S. INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WHILE AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ERN U.S.
...FORECAST...
A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SRN FL LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
| 
)
