Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...North Platte, NE...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
114,855
731,744
Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...North Platte, NE...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
65,315
457,194
Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Garden City, KS...Mandan, ND...Lamar, CO...
SPC AC 151241
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2015
VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLNS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE W CST THIS
PERIOD AS LEAD IMPULSE NOW OVER ERN WA/ORE SHEARS NE INTO
AB/SK...AND UPSTREAM SPEED MAX DIGS SE TO NEAR THE ORE CST BY 12Z
WED. AS THIS OCCURS...RESIDUAL SRN STREAM JET NOW OVER THE ERN GRT
BASIN/CNTRL RCKYS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ABSORBED WITHIN
BROADENING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WEST.
AT LWR LVLS...ERN MT SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE E INTO W CNTRL ND BY THIS
EVE BEFORE ACCELERATING NE INTO WRN ONT TNGT/EARLY WED. TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE E/SE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLNS LATER
TODAY...OVERTAKING PRE-FRONTAL LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW INTO ERN CO.
PERSISTENT SSW FLOW E OF THE TROUGH WILL DRAW GULF MOISTURE NWD
ACROSS E TX TODAY...AND INTO THE SRN OZARKS TNGT. BUT MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER N AND W...PERHAPS SOMEWHAT
AUGMENTED BY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY.
...CNTRL PLNS AFTN/EVE...
LEE TROUGH SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR WDLY SCTD...HIGH-BASED...
LATE-DAY TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS...WHERE A VERY
WARM/WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST BENEATH AXIS OF 30+ KT SWLY
MID-LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL SRN STREAM JET. COUPLED WITH
MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT...SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW INSTANCES OF
LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A SPOT OR TWO OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
EWD INTO WRN/NRN KS AND CNTRL NEB BY EARLY TNGT.
...ND LATE AFTN INTO TNGT...
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY REMAIN LIMITED...COMBINATION OF
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND GLANCING INFLUENCE OF PASSING AB/SK UPR
IMPULSE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK EML CAP AND FOSTER DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD STORMS ALONG AND BEHIND MERGING COLD FRONT/LEE
TROUGH IN ND AND PERHAPS SE MT/NE WY/NW SD LATE TODAY INTO TNGT.
ASSUMING STORMS DO FORM...ISOLD SVR WIND AND/OR HAIL COULD OCCUR
GIVEN STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...PRESENCE OF ADEQUATE
MOISTURE /PW AOA 1 INCH/...AND 30+ KT SWLY DEEP SHEAR.
...GRT BASIN AFTN/EVE...
DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE GRT
BASIN...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED FROM MUCH OF UT AND
ERN ID INTO WRN WY/CO...ALONG BAND OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW/ASCENT
WITH RESIDUAL SRN STREAM JET. A FEW STORMS ALSO MAY OCCUR IN NV.
MODERATE CYCLONIC UPR FLOW COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG GUSTS THIS AFTN
AND EVE. BUT MODEST HEATING/BUOYANCY SHOULD KEEP OVERALL SVR THREAT
LOW/ISOLD.
..CORFIDI/COOK.. 09/15/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z