Pampa, TX...Borger, TX...Woodward, OK...Elk City, OK...Clinton, OK...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
24,118
205,712
Pampa, TX...Borger, TX...Woodward, OK...Elk City, OK...Clinton, OK...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
24,186
216,372
Pampa, TX...Borger, TX...Woodward, OK...Elk City, OK...Clinton, OK...
SPC AC 201957
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
VALID 202000Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WESTERN OK...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
...EASTERN/OK TX PANHANDLES TO WESTERN OK...
THE MARGINAL RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED CU DEVELOPING ALONG A DRY LINE WHICH EXTENDED SSW
FROM THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE TO SOUTH OF AMA. SINCE AROUND
1930...SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A COUPLE OF
DEEPER UPDRAFTS HAD FORMED ALONG THE DRY LINE IN PRIMARILY GRAY
COUNTY TX. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT
SUGGESTING A COUPLE OF SUSTAINED STORMS DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE AND TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...THUS THIS OUTLOOK HAS
EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TO INCLUDE THE
CDS AREA.
...SOUTHERN MN AND ADJACENT WESTERN WI...
WEAK INSTABILITY PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM
100-300 J/KG...AND COOL 500-MB TEMPERATURES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING TO THE EAST
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY HAS PROVEN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AT LEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN...A SMALL GENERAL TSTM AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH THIS
OUTLOOK ISSUANCE FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN INTO ADJACENT WESTERN
WI.
..PETERS.. 09/20/2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. A PERSISTENT
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS AFFECTING MUCH OF OK TODAY.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED THICK CLOUD COVER IS ALONG THE
OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER. STRONG HEATING TO THE WEST OF THE
CLOUDS...COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WILL
YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW
A SUBTLE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA...BUT MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OVERALL LARGE-SCALE
FORCING IS WEAK. NEVERTHELESS...SEVERAL MORNING CAM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THE RISK OF ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING IN PARTS OF
THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OK EARLY THIS EVENING.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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