Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
33,778
4,318,188
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
34,235
4,407,609
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
SPC AC 290536
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL OR WIND MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE LEE OF SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 2
TO 8 P.M. MDT.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EAST PACIFIC UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK SHOULD
REACH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN THE
ACCELERATION OF A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY
ANCHORED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE RIVER. TRAILING PORTION OF A
COLD FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE NRN-STREAM VORTEX OVER HUDSON
BAY/ SHOULD STALL IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS A LEE TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
...LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES...
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUSTAIN A PLUME OF 50-55 DEG F
SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM ERN WY TO THE RATON MESA INTO THE AFTERNOON.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIABATIC HEATING OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. WHILE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODERATE WITH THE STRONGEST WNWLYS PROGGED TO
BE CENTERED OVER SERN WY/NERN CO...INTENSIFYING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
WILL YIELD AN ELONGATED STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPH. WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SETUP MAY FOSTER A COUPLE SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AMID DECREASING
INSTABILITY/STRENGTHENING MLCIN WITH ERN EXTENT.
..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 09/29/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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