Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
12,580
29,360
Trinidad, CO...Raton, NM...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
12,580
29,360
Trinidad, CO...Raton, NM...
SPC AC 301249
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
VALID 301300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER RATON MESA REGION...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS OR HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE RATON MESA REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS...
BASIC UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING OVER
ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES...ATTACHED TO MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER NWRN
MEX...AND TROUGHING OVER ERN CONUS. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS WILL TRAVERSE THAT BROAD HEIGHT WEAKNESS. THAT
INCLUDES SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER FSD/SUX REGION THAT WILL MOVE
SEWD AND EVOLVE INTO PRIMARY 500-MB LOW OVER SERN STATES DAY-2.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF W
COAST...SHIFTING EWD OVER GREAT BASIN THROUGH LATTER HALF OF
PERIOD...AS STG/BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCOMPANYING NERN PAC CYCLONE
APCHS CA COAST. DOWNSTREAM 500-MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM
ID/UT/AZ TO MT/WY/CO/NM BY 12Z.
AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW OVER SERN NY...WHICH IS FCST TO
MOVE NEWD TO NEAR MAINE COAST BY 00Z THEN OVER CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES THEREAFTER. TRAILING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED SWWD OVER
WV/VA BORDER REGION...MID TN...SRN AR...AND RED RIVER REGION OF SRN
PLAINS. FRONT SHOULD REACH CHESAPEAKE BAY...NRN GA AND NRN LA BY
00Z...WITH ITS WRN SEGMENT STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE ACROSS TX
PANHANDLE/NERN NM.
...RATON MESA AND VICINITY...
TSTMS MAY MOVE SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE AFTN INTO EARLY
EVENING...OFFERING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR HAIL/GUSTS. TSTM
INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES TOWARD
INCREASINGLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TIME AND WITH SEWD EXTENT
OVER TX/OK PANHANDLES.
LARGE-SCALE/UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING...WITH NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHT TENDENCY THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...DIABATIC
HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN...FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR WRN FRONTAL SEGMENT...AND SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF
POSTFRONTAL WINDS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUPPORTIVE LIFT FOR
AFTN/EARLY-EVENING TSTM POTENTIAL. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 50S F WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE GENERALLY IN
500-1000 J/KG RANGE...AMIDST VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT THAT
YIELD 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES. WHILE NEAR-SFC WINDS MAY
REMAIN WEAK...DEEP SHEAR OF THIS MAGNITUDE INDICATES SOME SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL WHILE STORMS REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE. PRECONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AND RELATED INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
INDICATE SOME GUST POTENTIAL IN ADDITION TO HAIL. SOME UPSCALE
GROWTH/CLUSTERING AND SMALL-SCALE COLD-POOL PRODUCTION IS LIKELY AS
WELL...BEFORE ACTIVITY DOES ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIR.
..EDWARDS/COOK.. 09/30/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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