Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
48,966
4,382,754
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
49,043
4,398,152
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
SPC AC 021929
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT FRI OCT 02 2015
VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES
AREA...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING FROM CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING AND SOUTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO CURRENT OUTLOOK. A RISK FOR
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAINS OVER THE CNTRL AND
SRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...AT LEAST A
MARGINAL RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST OVER COASTAL NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING AND SOUTH CAROLINA LATER TONIGHT
..DIAL.. 10/02/2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT FRI OCT 02 2015/
...SE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
A SLOW-MOVING SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS
SSWD TO ABOUT 50 MI SE OF CHS AS OF LATE MORNING. RAIN IS
REINFORCING WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING INLAND...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY IS DRIFTING SLOWLY SEWD OFF THE GA
COAST. STILL...THE BACKGROUND FLOW REGIME WITH STRENGTHENING
ELY/SELY FLOW WILL TEND TO FAVOR SOME EVENTUAL INLAND PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...IN NC THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS INTO SC LATER TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO WEAK CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SE ATLANTIC COAST.
A PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING NNWWD FROM HURRICANE
JOAQUIN WILL HELP MAINTAIN A BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME
THROUGH TONIGHT...PROVIDING A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ROTATING STORMS WHERE CONVECTIVE CELLS CROSS THE ZONE OF STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT. THUS...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE RISK DEPENDING ON INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE WARM SECTOR WITH
SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY.
...FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF NM/CO THIS AFTERNOON...
ONLY A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING CIN
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY E OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ON THE
W EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE PLAINS OF ERN CO/NE NM. THE
12Z DENVER SOUNDING REVEALED A SUBSTANTIAL CAP THAT WOULD NEED
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 F TO ELIMINATE CIN...THOUGH PERSISTENT
LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOW SURFACE HEATING IN MOST AREAS. STILL...A
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ASCENT WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY E OF
THE FRONT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY LOCALLY
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WHERE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...BUT THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL BE NARROW BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES
ELEVATED BY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES TO
REFLECT THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z