Oct 2, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 2 19:29:24 UTC 2015 (20151002 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20151002 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20151002 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 61,947 5,852,888 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20151002 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 26,864 1,574,600 Charleston, SC...Wilmington, NC...North Charleston, SC...Jacksonville, NC...Mount Pleasant, SC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20151002 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 48,966 4,382,754 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20151002 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 49,043 4,398,152 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
   SPC AC 021929

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 PM CDT FRI OCT 02 2015

   VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES
   AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING FROM CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
   AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR
   ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING AND SOUTH CAROLINA
   TONIGHT.

   ...DISCUSSION...

   NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO CURRENT OUTLOOK. A RISK FOR
   A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAINS OVER THE CNTRL AND
   SRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...AT LEAST A
   MARGINAL RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST OVER COASTAL NORTH
   CAROLINA THIS EVENING AND SOUTH CAROLINA LATER TONIGHT

   ..DIAL.. 10/02/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT FRI OCT 02 2015/

   ...SE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
   A SLOW-MOVING SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS
   SSWD TO ABOUT 50 MI SE OF CHS AS OF LATE MORNING.  RAIN IS
   REINFORCING WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING INLAND...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGES SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY IS DRIFTING SLOWLY SEWD OFF THE GA
   COAST.  STILL...THE BACKGROUND FLOW REGIME WITH STRENGTHENING
   ELY/SELY FLOW WILL TEND TO FAVOR SOME EVENTUAL INLAND PROGRESSION OF
   THE FRONT...IN NC THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS INTO SC LATER TONIGHT
   IN RESPONSE TO WEAK CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SE ATLANTIC COAST.

   A PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING NNWWD FROM HURRICANE
   JOAQUIN WILL HELP MAINTAIN A BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT
   THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME
   THROUGH TONIGHT...PROVIDING A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
   ROTATING STORMS WHERE CONVECTIVE CELLS CROSS THE ZONE OF STRONGER
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT.  THUS...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE RISK DEPENDING ON INLAND
   PENETRATION OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE WARM SECTOR WITH
   SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY.  

   ...FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF NM/CO THIS AFTERNOON...
   ONLY A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING CIN
   IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY E OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ON THE
   W EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE PLAINS OF ERN CO/NE NM.  THE
   12Z DENVER SOUNDING REVEALED A SUBSTANTIAL CAP THAT WOULD NEED
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 F TO ELIMINATE CIN...THOUGH PERSISTENT
   LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOW SURFACE HEATING IN MOST AREAS.  STILL...A
   MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ASCENT WILL SUPPORT
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY E OF
   THE FRONT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE ENVIRONMENT MAY LOCALLY
   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WHERE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...BUT THE
   WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL BE NARROW BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES
   ELEVATED BY TONIGHT.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES TO
   REFLECT THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

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