Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 191630
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR...MAINLY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
ARIZONA.
...SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA JUST OF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE EQUATORWARD CONTRIBUTING TO THE N-S ELONGATION OF THE WRN
U.S. TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT FORMATION OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
LOWER CO VALLEY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF BAJA AND THE GULF OF CA LATE
DAY 1/EARLY DAY 2. AS A CONSEQUENCE...THE PRIMARY ZONE OF HEIGHT
FALLS/LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED LARGELY SOUTH
OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ELSEWHERE...THE PRIMARY WAVE TRAIN OF
POLAR WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO CANADA WITH THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW FIELD BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES.
...SOUTHWESTERN STATES TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VORTICITY LOBE PROGRESSING
NEWD THROUGH UT...AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPARENT WEAK PERTURBATION
LOCATED JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST. THE FORMER WILL CONTINUE NEWD
TODAY AWAY FROM A SEASONABLY MOIST AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS PRESENT OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE LATTER DISTURBANCE MAY NOT BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE LOWER CO VALLEY UNTIL TONIGHT. AS SUCH...THE
PROSPECT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A COMPARATIVELY GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY MATERIALIZE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL INTO NRN AZ AS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR STRENGTHEN
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EVOLVING UPPER-AIR SYSTEM. BOTH
CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND PARAMETRIZED MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN TSTMS AMIDST AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..MEAD/MOSIER.. 10/19/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
| 
)
