Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 200035
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF WRN...CNTRL AND NRN
AZ...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR...MAINLY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
ARIZONA.
...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD
ACROSS NRN BAJA CA INTO WRN AZ WITH ATTENDANT LIFT/MOISTENING NOTED
AS WELL. THIS TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING STORMS OVER MUCH OF
WRN AZ TONIGHT WITH COOLING ALOFT ATOP MOIST SLY UPSLOPE
FLOW/FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. INCREASING
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY FAVOR A FEW LONG-LIVED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED STORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NM
SHOULD GENERALLY WANE WITH TIME AS THEY WERE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN. UNTIL
THAT OCCURS...SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..JEWELL.. 10/20/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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