SPC AC 301631

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1131 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

   VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S CNTRL TX INTO SE TX AND
   FAR SW LA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA
   FROM...FROM SW TX INTO WRN LA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY OVER
   PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FROM
   SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
   A COUPLE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH SW U.S. TROUGH EXPECTED TO FURTHER
   AMPLIFY AS JET STREAK NOW CROSSING THE LWR CO VLY CONTINUES SSEWD.
   THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...REACHING A WRN OK/SW TX AXIS BY
   12Z SAT. IN THE MEAN TIME...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF
   THE TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX.

   AT LWR LVLS...LARGE ANTICYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY WILL
   EDGE ONLY SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINTAINING SHALLOW LAYER
   OF MODIFIED  POLAR AIR OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO.
   HOWEVER...RICH MOISTURE /PW AROUND 2 INCHES/ NOW OVER S TX WILL
   SPREAD NNE INTO THE SABINE RVR VLY BY EARLY SAT...WITH THE NEAR-SFC
   LAYER ALSO LIKELY TO UNDERGO APPRECIABLE WARMING/MOISTENING NEWD
   INTO SW LA.

   ...S CNTRL TO SE TX TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT...
   MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STG-SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z SAT OVER
   PARTS OF SRN...CNTRL...AND SE TX AS SW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS AHEAD OF
   SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH. WHILE EXISTING STORMS LIKELY
   WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E ACROSS THE OTLK AREA TODAY...ADDITIONAL EPISODES
   OF DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED UPSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX HILL
   COUNTRY AND S CNTRL TX LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT. THIS ACTIVITY
   SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE/DEVELOP E/NE INTO SE TX AND SW LA EARLY
   SAT. THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY DMGG WIND
   AND A FEW TORNADOES...WITH THE RISK FOR LARGER HAIL CONFINED LARGELY
   TO THE WRN FRINGE OF THE OTLK.

   THE GREATEST SVR RISK THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR
   TORNADOES...SHOULD FOCUS ALONG SFC WARM FRONT THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM
   N OF DRT AND W OF JCT ENE TO NEAR CLL. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ADVANCE
   SLOWLY NWD THROUGH SAT MORNING...WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE POSSIBLY
   FORMING ALONG IT NEAR AUS/SAT EARLY SAT. THE WAVE COULD REACH THE
   LFK AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

   COMBINATION OF RICH MOISTURE...LONG/HOOKED HODOGRAPHS /PER AREA
   VWPS/...CONFLUENT NATURE OF 925-850 MB FLOW...AND PROSPECTS FOR AT
   LEAST MODEST SFC HEATING SUGGEST A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
   OCCASIONAL LOW-LVL MESOS/TORNADOES INVOF MCS WITH EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS NOW SE OF AUS.  HEATING AND CONFLUENCE ALSO MAY SPAWN A
   COUPLE SMALLER/ISOLD SUPERCELLS S AND E OF THE MCS. THESE CELLS ALSO
   COULD SPAWN A COUPLE TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND.
   TO THE S...A NON-ZERO TORNADO/DMGG WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH
   BROKEN SSW-NNE BAND OF STORMS NOW APPROACHING THE BRO AREA.

   FARTHER W/SW...MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR W OF UPR-LVL
   CLOUD SHIELD COVERING THE SE HALF OF TX. THIS AREA ALSO WILL
   EXPERIENCE SOMEWHAT GREATER HEIGHT FALLS AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH EDGES
   EWD. THESE FACTORS...IN ADDITION TO TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...COULD
   INITIATE SCTD AFTN/EVE STORMS FROM NRN MEXICO NNE ACROSS THE RIO
   GRANDE INTO WRN PARTS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY. WITH 500 MB SW FLOW
   AOA 50 KTS AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE /PW AROUND 1...50 INCHES/ FOR
   ROBUST UPDRAFTS...SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND MAY
   OCCUR. THESE MAY MERGE INTO AN EWD-MOVING LINE OR CLUSTER
   TNGT...EXTENDING A SVR RISK ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR
   AND...EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE E TX CSTL PLN. THE STORMS COULD POSE AN
   INCREASING TORNADO THREAT LATE TNGT OR EARLY SAT OVER E CNTRL/SE TX
   AND PERHAPS FAR SW LA AS AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE DEVELOPS...AND DEEP
   SW FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH THE CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF UPR TROUGH.

   ..CORFIDI/KERR.. 10/30/2015

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