Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
78,222
1,257,355
Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Del Rio, TX...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...
SPC AC 041259
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST WED NOV 04 2015
VALID 041300Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER
VICINITY OF TX...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH TEXAS.
...SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT DURING THE PERIOD OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST IN ADVANCE OF AN
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THIS MORNING. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO
OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NEB THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE
IN PROXIMITY TO A SLOW-MOVING FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND REACH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. WITH SEASONALLY MILD
TEMPERATURES PREVALENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES...A STEADILY
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP
ESTABLISH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC
COLD FRONT.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...
TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHEAST CO SURFACE LOW AND A
SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS
TO REACH THE LOWER 60S THIS EVENING AS FAR NORTH AS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OK/SOUTHWEST KS. AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH/HEIGHT FALLS
REACH THE REGION...THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO OVERTAKE THE PRECEDING SURFACE TROUGH AND NEARBY WARM/MOIST
SECTOR BY MID/LATE EVENING...LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG /GENERALLY 45-60 KT 0-6 KM/...THE OVERALL
MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY RELATIVELY MODEST
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY...WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY LIMITED TO 500 J/KG OR
LESS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE
HOURS OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THEREAFTER...THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH SOME
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND RISK CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
...TX MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP/MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION INCLUDING THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO VICINITY AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
BEGINS TO REACH THE REGION. EVEN IF THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER
CONVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...A
SUFFICIENTLY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE PRESENCE OF
SUPERCELL-FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. A MORE
ORGANIZED/CERTAIN SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY /REFERENCE DAY 2 OUTLOOK/.
..GUYER/LEITMAN.. 11/04/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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