SPC AC 060529

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 PM CST THU NOV 05 2015

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE TN VALLEY TO
   NRN LA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FROM MIDDLE
   TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

   ...MIDDLE TN TO NRN LA...

   INTENSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   INTO WRN QUEBEC FRIDAY AS 100KT+ 500MB SPEED MAX EJECTS INTO SERN
   CANADA.  AS A RESULT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL FOCUS NORTH OF THE
   INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHILE TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY WILL BE NEGLIGIBLY CONVERGENT AT LOW LATITUDES.  ATTENDANT
   WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...SWWD INTO
   SCNTRL TX WHERE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY HIGH...ON THE ORDER
   OF 2 INCHES.

   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY EXHIBIT POOR LAPSE RATES
   WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY IN THE LOWEST 4KM.  ANY CONVECTION THAT
   DEVELOPS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE WEAK AND
   STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

   HOWEVER...FARTHER SOUTH...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL PROVE ADEQUATE
   FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM THE TN VALLEY
   INTO SCNTRL TX.  WHILE LARGE-SCALE MASS FIELDS SUGGEST MEAGER
   FORCING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
   SUGGEST SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE.  MODEST SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
   WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS AND DESPITE THE
   WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IT APPEARS GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH
   THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.  FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CAT1 SEVERE
   PROBS FROM MIDDLE TN INTO NRN LA.

   ..DARROW/ROGERS.. 11/06/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z