Nov 7, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 7 12:44:09 UTC 2015 (20151107 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20151107 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20151107 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20151107 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20151107 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20151107 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 071244

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0644 AM CST SAT NOV 07 2015

   VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY FROM
   SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM ONTARIO TO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL ADVANCE EWD
   TO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AS AN UPSTREAM RIDGE BROADENS OVER THE
   CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND N-CNTRL CONUS.  FARTHER W...AN
   AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NW
   COASTS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
   FROM THE TIDEWATER REGION TO TX COASTAL PLAIN WILL ADVANCE SWD INTO
   THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA WHILE AN ANTICYCLONE BUILDS FROM
   THE CNTRL PLAINS TO OH VALLEY.

   ...S-CNTRL/SERN U.S...

   A BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE HAS
   CONTRIBUTED TO CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS THIS MORNING FROM TX INTO
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  EXPECT THIS CONVECTIVE REGIME TO GRADUALLY
   SHIFT SWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST TODAY...IN TANDEM WITH THE
   PROGRESSION OF THE SFC-850-MB FRONTS.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
   EXPECTED.  

   FARTHER EAST...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
   THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD THROUGH THE SRN
   MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...ENHANCING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
   VERTICAL SHEAR INVOF THE SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT.  RECENT
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN TSTM
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
   SRN VA.  WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...POOR MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MEAGER BUOYANCY WILL LIMIT THE RISK FOR
   SEVERE WEATHER.

   ..MEAD/COHEN.. 11/07/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z