Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 071244
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 AM CST SAT NOV 07 2015
VALID 071300Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY FROM
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM ONTARIO TO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL ADVANCE EWD
TO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AS AN UPSTREAM RIDGE BROADENS OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND N-CNTRL CONUS. FARTHER W...AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NW
COASTS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
FROM THE TIDEWATER REGION TO TX COASTAL PLAIN WILL ADVANCE SWD INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA WHILE AN ANTICYCLONE BUILDS FROM
THE CNTRL PLAINS TO OH VALLEY.
...S-CNTRL/SERN U.S...
A BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS THIS MORNING FROM TX INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. EXPECT THIS CONVECTIVE REGIME TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT SWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST TODAY...IN TANDEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC-850-MB FRONTS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
FARTHER EAST...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD THROUGH THE SRN
MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...ENHANCING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
VERTICAL SHEAR INVOF THE SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. RECENT
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN TSTM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
SRN VA. WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MEAGER BUOYANCY WILL LIMIT THE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
..MEAD/COHEN.. 11/07/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z