Nov 7, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 7 19:29:41 UTC 2015 (20151107 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20151107 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20151107 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20151107 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20151107 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20151107 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 071929

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0129 PM CST SAT NOV 07 2015

   VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

   ...DISCUSSION...

   ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. ISOLATED
   NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM S TX THROUGH THE SERN
   STATES AND THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO THIS EVENING.

   ..DIAL.. 11/07/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST SAT NOV 07 2015/

   A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT TODAY
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW
   POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...SUGGESTING THAT
   CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED AND THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
   LOW.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z