SPC AC 111302

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0702 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

   VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA/MO/IL...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MO VALLEY/MIDWEST
   SOUTHWARD TO THE ARKLATEX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH/SLGT RISK
   AREAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
   INTO EASTERN TEXAS. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE
   STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA
   AND NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
   ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ACCELERATE
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS TODAY AND REACH THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING
   ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...HIGHLIGHTED BY A
   100-130 KT MID/HIGH-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET WITH AN INCREASINGLY
   STRONG /50-75 KT/ LOW-LEVEL JET INTO TONIGHT. 

   STEADY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER KS EARLY
   TODAY...WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING NORTHEASTWARD INTO IA/WI THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
   EARLY TODAY WILL ACCELERATE GENERALLY EASTWARD...REACHING THE OH/TN
   RIVER VALLEYS AND LOWER MS VALLEY/COASTAL TX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
   THURSDAY.

   ...MO VALLEY/MIDWEST INCLUDING IA/MO/IL/SOUTHERN WI...
   IN SPITE OF AMPLE MOISTURE FLUXES TODAY...MARGINAL MOISTURE QUALITY
   INTO THE REGION SHOULD PRECLUDE WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE LIKELY BE A
   MORE CONSEQUENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK IN THE PRESENCE OF ROBUST
   FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR. NONETHELESS...SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW
   TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITHIN A
   HIGHLY SHEARED/WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. 

   WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS EXTENDING FROM OK INTO EAST-CENTRAL
   KS/NORTHWEST MO EARLY THIS MORNING...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 50S F
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A MODESTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE
   WARM SECTOR NEAR/AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE AND THE
   EASTWARD-ACCELERATING COLD FRONT. VARIOUS CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS
   SUCH AS EARLY-MORNING HRRR/HRRR-ESRL RUNS AND 00Z WRF-NSSL SUGGEST
   THAT INITIAL SURFACE-BASED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT...LIKELY AS SEMI-DISCRETE LOW-TOPPED STORMS...MAY OCCUR
   AS EARLY AS NOON-2PM CST NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER ACROSS
   SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA AND NORTHERN MO. LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE/BUOYANCY IN THE PRESENCE OF 200+ 0-1 KM SRH SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TORNADOES ASIDE FROM SOME HAIL/WIND DAMAGE THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   IA/PARTS OF MO AND INTO IL/SOUTHERN WI...EVOLVING INTO FAST-MOVING
   BANDS OF CONVECTION POSING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. EVEN WHILE SURFACE-ROOTED BUOYANCY
   WILL BECOME LIMITED/SCANT TONIGHT AND LIGHTNING WILL GRADUALLY
   DECREASE...INCREASINGLY INTENSE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...ACCENTUATED BY
   60-75 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM
   AGL...SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
   PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...POSSIBLY AS FAR
   EAST-NORTHEAST AS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY.

   ...MID-SOUTH/OZARKS/ARKLATEX/EAST TX...
   ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO
   DEVELOP/GRADUALLY INTENSIFY BY EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON...INITIALLY
   WITHIN A CORRIDOR SPANNING FAR SOUTHERN MO...FAR SOUTHEAST OK...AND
   WESTERN/CENTRAL AR SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEAST/EAST TX. THIS
   DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A MODESTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE
   PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AMID WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE. EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR OF 40-55 KT WOULD SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELLS. WHILE WINDS IN
   THE 1-3 KM AGL LAYER WILL BE TENDING TO VEER THIS
   AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR COULD YIELD A TORNADO ASIDE FROM
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. WHILE A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL MAY BE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THE OVERALL HAIL POTENTIAL
   SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

   ..GUYER/MARSH.. 11/11/2015

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