Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
22,976
772,801
Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Duncan, OK...Yukon, OK...Altus, OK...
30 %
85,886
2,429,763
Oklahoma City, OK...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
94,131
1,226,053
Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...
5 %
184,236
10,210,713
San Antonio, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
SPC AC 170106
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS N-CNTRL KS SWD INTO WRN
OK AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND NW TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK OVER
THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK OVER
THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS EVENING WITH A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT. A SQUALL LINE WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT FROM KANSAS SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE FORECAST.
...CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVENING...
A PLUME OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY MID 50S
DEWPOINTS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NWD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE 17/00Z DDC RAOB EXHIBITED A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE --COMPARED TO THE 17/20Z RAOB--
AND COUPLED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
COOLING...MODERATE BUOYANCY AMIDST AN ENLARGING HODOGRAPH WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MEDIUM TO
LONGER-TRACK SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE
EXPANDED THE 10 PERCENT SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITIES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT FROM NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER
SWD INTO SWRN KS. STRONGER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE
RAPID EWD PROGRESSION OF THE PACIFIC FRONT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
W WILL PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO SMALL BOWS/LINE
SEGMENTS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE LATER ACTIVITY BEING ISOLD
DMGG WINDS.
...W TX AND TX PANHANDLE EWD THROUGH OK AND N-CNTRL/CNTRL TX LATER
TONIGHT...
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO SURGE NWD TONIGHT AS A
SLY LLJ INTENSIFIES WITH THE RICHER MOISTURE FORECAST ALONG AND S OF
A NWD-MOVING DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OK LATER
TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SPEED MAX NOSE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL
FAVOR A MIXED MODE OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH THE
EVENING. ATTENDANT THREATS FOR TORNADOES /POSSIBLY STRONG/...HAIL
AND WIND WILL ACCOMPANY ANY SUPERCELL ACTIVITY. AS THE PACIFIC
FRONT RAPIDLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY COALESCE INTO A
BROKEN SQUALL LINE. THE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SEVERE-WIND PRODUCING
SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 400 M2 PER
S2/ WILL LEND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT
PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE BAND OF STORMS MOVES EWD.
..SMITH.. 11/17/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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