Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
61,111
5,942,327
New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Metairie, LA...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 180055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
VALID 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST.
...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL
PIVOT NEWD TOWARDS THE MID TO LOWER MO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MOVES THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP NNEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY.
...LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SQUALL LINE
TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY PINCH OFF THE MARGINALLY BUOYANT WARM SECTOR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. DESPITE LOWER TO MID
60S DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO PARTS OF WRN TN AND NRN MS
TONIGHT...POOR LAPSE RATES /REFERENCE 18/00Z JAN RAOB/ WITHIN THE
WARM CONVEYER AND THE INABILITY FOR RICHER MOISTURE LOCATED FARTHER
S NEAR THE GULF COAST TO ADVECT NWD WILL TEND TO CONFINE THE
REMAINING SEVERE RISK. THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND
A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE GREATEST WHERE THE SQUALL LINE CAN ORIENT
MORE WITH THE MEAN FLOW OR WITH CELLULAR ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE CONFINED
S OF I-20 ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES WHERE ACCESS TO 15-16 G
PER KG MEAN MIXING RATIOS WILL ACT TO OFFSET POOR LAPSE RATES TO
YIELD MARGINAL BUOYANCY. LARGE HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLD STORM ROTATION WITH LONGER-LIVED AND MORE
INTENSE CELLULAR ELEMENTS IN THE LINE AS THE SEVERE RISK AREA SHIFTS
EWD TO THE MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE VICINITY LATE TONIGHT.
..SMITH.. 11/18/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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