Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 201625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015
VALID 201630Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
A CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME PRESENT OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA
WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF AN INTENSIFYING
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS AND MID
TO LOWER MO VALLEYS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LEE CYCLONE OVER WRN
NEB WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SURGES SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL INTO SRN PLAINS.
THE PREDOMINANCE OF A CONTINENTAL-POLAR AIR MASS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
WILL PRECLUDE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
12Z/SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER FL WHERE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITHIN A MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND ALONG THE TX COAST OVERNIGHT WITHIN A
ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THERMAL ADVECTION. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED IN EITHER AREA.
..MEAD/COHEN.. 11/20/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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