Dec 18, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 18 00:35:58 UTC 2015 (20151218 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20151218 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20151218 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20151218 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20151218 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20151218 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 180035

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0635 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

   VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE U.S. THE REMAINDER OF
   TONIGHT.

   ...NRN AND WCNTRL FL...

   BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING WITHIN ZONE
   OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS NRN FL. THE 00Z RAOB
   DATA SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMPERATURES ABOVE
   -10C SUGGESTING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TOO SHALLOW/WEAK FOR CHARGE
   SEPARATION.

   ..DIAL.. 12/18/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z