Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 190536
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIMITED RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
MOISTURE WILL COMMENCE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
GREAT PLAINS...ON THE SWRN RIM OF A SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTING ENEWD
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE ANTICIPATED DEARTH OF
BUOYANCY COUPLED WITH A PAUCITY OF DEEP...LARGE-SCALE UPWARD MOTION
WILL PRECLUDE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGIME.
TO THE W...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE
PACIFIC NW AND CA COASTS...ADVANCING EWD TO THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...AND AN ISOLATED TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FROM THE CNTRL CA COAST EWD TO THE SIERRA. HOWEVER...LIMITED
BUOYANCY...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE TSTM POTENTIAL.
FARTHER E...SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
MAY EXIST WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AFFECTING THE EAST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO EWD ACROSS PARTS OF NY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS THEREAFTER SUGGEST THAT ANY TSTM
POTENTIAL WILL BE BRIEF...WITH THE OVERALL LIMITED INSTABILITY
IMPLYING TOO MINIMAL TSTM POTENTIAL FOR GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM
DELINEATION.
ELSEWHERE...TSTMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
..COHEN.. 12/19/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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