Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 200542
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN
AND SWRN CONUS EWD TO THE MID-MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF A SFC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS WILL ENCOURAGE INLAND
FLUXES OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN GREAT PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DCVA AND ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING A SWLY LLJ ARE FORECAST TO BE DISPLACED TO THE N OF ANY
SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY IN THE MOISTURE-RETURN REGIME. POCKETS OF
MINIMAL TSTM POTENTIAL MAY EXIST TONIGHT FROM ERN PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN GREAT PLAINS EWD TO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF PHASING BETWEEN STRONGER BUOYANCY AND STRONGER
ASCENT IS FORECAST TO KEEP TSTM PROBABILITIES BELOW 10 PERCENT.
WELL TO THE NW...AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY AFFECT THE
WRN WA COAST AND VICINITY TODAY AS COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON
THE S SIDE OF A REINFORCING MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROMOTE MINIMAL
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEARTH OF BUOYANCY -- DISTRIBUTED
THROUGH ONLY NARROW CAPE PROFILES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS -- SUGGESTS
THAT THE TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
ELSEWHERE...TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
..COHEN.. 12/20/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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